The ability for Apple fans to grab an iPhone 12 at launch has been under threat, according to reports, with COVID-19 coronavirus apparently causing serious issues in the phone's China-based manufacturing processes. There have even been reports that said Apple was going to miss its traditional new iPhone launch timings, leaving an open goal for the Samsung Galaxy S20 series to capitalise on.
However, according to (opens in new tab) respected Wedbush Securities analyst, Dan Ives, this reading of events could not be further from the truth. Indeed, Ives not only states that the manufacturing issues are only minor and temporary, but that Apple is about to enter a "supercycle" upgrade pattern that will see the iPhone 12 dramatically out sell the Galaxy S20, and indeed every other phone in the world.
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Speaking on the impending Galaxy S20 series sales beatdown in a recent investors note, Ives stated that:
"While the last few weeks has been an exogenous ‘shock event’ to Apple’s ecosystem on both the supply and demand side due to its China exposure, we believe this will be short lived as the longer term 5G supercycle thesis and services re-rating remain the crux of our bull thesis on Apple for the next 12 to 18 months."
Before noting that the iPhone 12 is going to be subjected to a "perfect storm of demand", with 5G connectivity driving an avalanche of iPhone upgrades, no matter which legacy device the user is switching up from, as they are all 4G. This, Ives refers to as, a "window of an upgrade opportunity", and would lead to fierce demand for the new iPhone from 350 million of Apple's 925 million install base.
For Apple iPhone 12 wanters this could cause trouble, as Ives has predicted that the company will ship 200 - 215 million iPhones over the September 2021 fiscal year, and that figure falls short of the 350 million upgraders that are predicted as incoming. As such, it is looking increasingly likely that due to this 5G supercycle upgrade pattern, as well as small impacts on Apple's manufacturing processes, if you want an iPhone 12 then you better get that pre-order locked in immediately as they go live.